31 mars 2005
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Suite aux accords de Luxembourg, le secteur laitier va connaître de profondes modifications entre 2004 et 2007. Quelles seront les incidences de cette réforme pour le secteur laitier en zone de montagne et quelles sont les pistes d'évolution possibles?
L'analyse des incidences de la PAC sur les exploitations laitières et les systèmes fourragers de montagne est conduite dans le Massif central (beaucoup de systèmes avec également des vaches allaitantes, exploitations de petite taille et peu modernisées, et un prix du lait bas) et les Alpes du Nord (systèmes laitiers spécialisés et un prix du lait élevé). Dans les 2 cas, la dépendance des exploitations laitières en aides directes augmentera et le paiement unique ne représentera que la moitié des aides directes totales ; la PAC va compromettre la pérennité des exploitations peu modernisées, de faible dimension. Dans le Massif central, une partie des "doubles troupeaux" pourrait abandonner le lait ; les éleveurs pourraient chercher une meilleure valorisation de leur production (fromage fermier ou veaux de boucherie). En Savoie, l'activité laitière resterait la production la plus rentable. Partout est posée la question de l'évolution de la demande fromagère et du maintien d'un prix du lait différentié.
The effects of the Common Agricultural Policy on the dairy farms and the forage systems of highland regions was analysed in two mountain ranges in particular : the Massif Central and the Northern Alps. In the first, there exist a large proportion of systems with both dairy cows and suckler cows, numerous little-modernized farms with a small area, and a milk price below the national average. The second is characterized by the predominance of specialized dairy systems and a high milk price paid to the producers. For all farms, the Luxemburg compromise entailed a very large increase of the dependency on direct subsidies from 2000 to 2008 since the 'direct subsidies/current results' ratio would rise on average from 55% in 2000 to 116% in 2008. The weight of the subsidies to the rural development would remain important and the single payment would only amount to half the total direct subsidies. Simulations made in the Massif Central on some typical farms of the 'Réseau d'Elevage' network showed that there could be a regression of dairying in some of the dual-purpose herds, a renewed interest in diversification, such as the production of farm cheeses or of veal calves, but also that the CAP could accelerate the restructuring of the dairy farms and widen the gap between the traditional and the modernized farms. Another contemplated possibility is an increase in the price of milk paid to the farmer thanks to a better differentiation of highland milk. In the Savoy region, dairying would remain the most profitable activity, even in the case of a slight decrease in the price of milk. The reform of the CAP would put a heavy strain on the less performing farms and would endanger the perenniality of the little-modernized farms of small area. In both regions the question is raised of how the demand for cheese will evolve and whether the differentiation of the milk price from the standard products will be maintained or will even increase.
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